How the forecast works

Fabrik Analytics projects where each month will finish and forecasts the months ahead. The result is stored once and read everywhere: the Targets page, the Dashboard's pace, Trading, portfolio targets, client scorecards, reports, commissions and Intelligence's target findings all show the same projection.

One method for every brand

Every brand is forecast by the same rule. The few settings the rule needs (how much weight to give last year, whether to line last year up by weekday or by date, how much to trust the month's usual shape on each day) are fitted once on the history of every brand together, then applied unchanged to all. They are refitted after each month closes.

The month in progress

The projected finish is what has arrived so far divided by the share of the month that normally arrives by today. That normal share blends two shapes:

1. Last year's shape: the same month a year ago (and two years ago, where held), lined up with this year, with the Black Friday weekend moved onto this year's dates.
2. The last 3 complete months: how a typical recent month builds up.

That blended shape is then blended with the plain run rate (so far divided by days gone, times days in the month). How much each counts depends on the day of the month; the weight for each day was chosen by testing which worked best across all brands.

A worked example

It is 10 October. Fellwick has 30,000 of net sales so far. Last year and recent months both suggest that by the 10th a month normally has about 30% of its total in.

• Shape-based finish: 30,000 divided by 0.30 = 100,000
• Plain run rate: 30,000 divided by 10 days, times 31 days = 93,000
• The projection blends the two, landing between them, for example about 97,000.

The projected finish is never shown below what has already arrived.

Months not started

A month not started is forecast as the same month last year, times the recent year-on-year trend. The trend compares your last 3 complete months with the same months a year earlier. It is eased towards flat and kept between half and double, so one unusual month cannot swing it too far.

Without last year's month, the forecast is the daily rate of your most recent complete months, times the days in the month.

A worked example

Last November Fellwick sold 120,000. Over the last three months it sold 10% more than a year earlier. With three months to compare, the 10% is eased to about 7.5%, so November's forecast is about 129,000.

Ad spend follows its plan

Spend is something you decide. For the rest of the month in progress and for later months, total ad spend is projected at your spend target. In a portfolio with pooled targets, the portfolio's spend target is shared out between its brands by each brand's share of the portfolio's spend over the last 28 days, so the brands' projections add up to the portfolio's target. See Portfolio targets and pooled targets.

What counts as history

A past month is used only when it is complete, at least 75% of its days have figures, its total is above zero and it is at least a tenth of a typical month. This stops a month when the store was barely trading from setting the shape.

What is projected

Totals: net sales, gross sales, shipping, net sales + shipping, taxes, duties, discounts, orders, new customers, each platform's ad spend and claimed revenue, and their totals. Rates and ratios are not projected; their projected finish is their rate so far.

Where you will see it

• Hover over a month in progress on the Targets page to see Projected and the method: "Forecast from last year's same month, the last 3 months, the pace so far and any ad spend plan, by the same rule for every brand".
• Hover over a month not started to see its Forecast beside its target.
• If no projection has been stored yet, How attainment is read at the foot of the page says the month so far is used instead.

Troubleshooting

• The projection jumped after a big day. Projections refresh within about ten minutes of new figures, and a big early day lifts the finish most because less of the month has passed.
• A forecast looks far off for a new brand. With little history, the forecast has less to go on. It improves as complete months build up.